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October 7, 2024
Hiring in an age of uncertainty
There were a few data signals going into Friday’s blockbuster jobs report that many market watchers and economists missed.
Layoffs, as measured by a rolling four-week average of initial jobless claims, hit their lowest level in more than a year and a half. August showed an uptick in job openings, a hint that companies were about to ramp up hiring. And September’s ADP National Employment Report suggested that a rebound in private-sector hiring was under way.
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April 17, 2023
MainStreet Macro: The path between global and local growth
Last week my attention turned to my old stomping ground, Washington, D.C., where I worked for several years.
One of the city’s most closely watched spring events – after the National Cherry Blossom Festival – is the annual spring meeting of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Central bankers, finance ministers, company executives, and academics from across the globe descend on D.C. to discuss front-burner economic and geopolitical issues.
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April 10, 2023
MainStreet Macro: March Jobs Data: A Return to Balance
Last week delivered a fresh round of jobs data for February and March. Today, we’ll catch up on the numbers and what they say about the current state of the labor market. All told, it’s mostly good news.
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April 3, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Taking the temperature of financial conditions
Where I live, in the Northeast, early spring can be unsettling. Warm, sunny hours can be followed by chilling rains, relentless wind, snow, or worse.
Like spring’s unpredictable weather, financial conditions can be volatile, as we witnessed last month.
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March 6, 2023
MainStreet Macro: The goods on goods
We all know by now that the labor market is tight. But it’s also fragmented, with different sectors responding differently to labor shortages and higher interest rates. As Main Street employers scout for workers, for example, big tech companies continue to announce big layoffs.
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February 27, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Off the clock
Whether they’re at the office, on site, or at home, the hours people put in at work are all important, to both them and their employers. Employers use the number of hours worked as a lever to control the quantity of output their employees deliver. And hours worked are a key input when it comes to analyzing the labor market. They’re a consequential determinant of wages, profits, inflation, and the productive power of the economy.
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February 21, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Unseasonable warmth
I live in the Northeast, where February has brought unseasonably warm weather. The mild temperature reminds me of the U.S. economy, which is much warmer than many economists and analysts expected it would be at this point in time.
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February 13, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Back to basics
With inflation, Silicon Valley layoffs and the federal debt ceiling dominating economic headlines, the real economy can get lost. Today, to mark the 100th edition of MainStreet Macro, I thought we’d get back to basics. Let’s start with a reminder of why Main Street is the economy’s growth engine.
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February 6, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Deciphering January data
The start of the year often brings confusing economic data, and this January was no exception. Extreme weather across most of the U.S. muddled the picture even more. Here’s a guide to making sense of last month’s numbers.
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