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April 15, 2025
Small business startups: The beat goes on. Or does it?
While market volatility dominated the headlines last week, small businesses quietly hit a milestone. Applications for new startups reached their second-highest level on record. Small businesses have long served as the backbone of U.S. employment. During the economic expansion that preceded the 2020 pandemic—at more than 10 years, it was the longest period of growth in U.S. history—small business created almost two-thirds of all new jobs.
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November 4, 2024
When the economic data is confusing, take a closer look
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that private employers had shed 28,000 jobs in October. Just days earlier, ADP data had shown that the private sector had added 233,000 jobs. It’s enough to give anyone mental whiplash. But the numbers beg an obvious question: Is the economy strengthening, or weakening?
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October 21, 2024
The strength of a boring economy
The 2024 economy has become boring. Despite being jostled by extraordinary events such as back-to-back hurricanes, interest rates near 20-year highs, and geopolitical events, the economy is humming along. Recent data on consumer spending, corporate profits, and worker retention confirms this resilience, and help explain why a boring economy just might be, for now, the best kind of economy.
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October 14, 2024
Helene, Milton, and the economy: What to expect
Hurricane Helene last month delivered a 600-mile path of destruction through six states—Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia—and Hurricane Milton followed with a second blow last week across central Florida. After September’s surprising boost in job gains delivered clarity on the strength of the U.S. economy, Helene and Milton are likely to influence economic data in the weeks and months ahead. Here’s what to watch.
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October 7, 2024
Hiring in an age of uncertainty
There were a few data signals going into Friday’s blockbuster jobs report that many market watchers and economists missed.
Layoffs, as measured by a rolling four-week average of initial jobless claims, hit their lowest level in more than a year and a half. August showed an uptick in job openings, a hint that companies were about to ramp up hiring. And September’s ADP National Employment Report suggested that a rebound in private-sector hiring was under way.
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September 30, 2024
Main Street Macro: What could go wrong?
Last week’s economic data delivered a lot of good news. The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed that the economy grew at a solid 3 percent pace in the second quarter. Initial jobless claims, a measure of layoffs, fell to 218,000, the lowest level since May.
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September 23, 2024
Main Street Macro: What’s debt got to do with it?
The Federal Reserve’s move to cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point won’t likely be felt immediately by its primary targets, employers, and households.
Yes, the Fed has a mandate to promote full employment and price stability, but in practice it takes a long time for rate cuts to translate into more hiring and spending on Main Street.
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September 16, 2024
Main Street Macro: There’s still no foregone conclusion on inflation. Here’s why
It would be easy to ignore the economic news this week and pay attention only to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve vote on interest rates. I caution you: Don’t.
Even with a Fed meeting on the calendar, there will be much more important data news to watch. That’s because we still don’t know with certainty the future path ...
September 9, 2024
Main Street Macro: The landing: It’s not how, it’s where
For the last two years, economists and market strategists have been intensely engaged in a debate over this question: Is the U.S. economy headed for a hard or soft landing?
The how is one thing, but much less attention has been paid to where the economy will land. But after a week of weaker-than-expected job data, the economy’s destination is coming into focus.
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