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January 13, 2025

The skills opportunity

Job reports move markets because they’re the strongest signal economists have about the strength of the U.S. economy. But worker productivity is just as important to economic growth; it’s just harder to measure or capture.
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November 15, 2021

MainStreet Macro: What’s in and what’s out

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

ADPRI kicked off 2021 with data that showed a global workforce in flux. Three in four workers in our survey said they had changed, or planned to change, how or where they live. Since then, we’ve seen tremendous upheaval in the labor market. In the U.S., companies are scrambling to hire and job openings are near record highs. But workers who quit in record numbers have been slow to return, and the labor market is still 5 million people smaller than it was before the pandemic. Here’s the cool part: There’s a wealth of new data to mine. In 2022, data will be more important than ever for employers navigating the new, dynamic workforce and evolving business landscape. With data in mind, here’s what’s in and what’s out for workforce trends in the coming year.
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November 8, 2021

MainStreet Macro: The Big Three

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

While you were worrying about labor, supply chains, and inflation, you might have missed the news that U.S. economic growth slowed from July through September to just 2%. That’s below even the tortoise-like pace that defined growth in the decade before the pandemic. It’s also a far cry from the sonic 6.7% growth we saw in the second quarter of this year. The delta-variant was behind the economic downshift, as another uptick in cases limited our rebound. Now, with viral outbreaks re-contained, the outlook for GDP in the final three months of 2021 will hinge on Main Street’s ability to navigate the big three: Hiring bottlenecks, inflation, and supply shortages.
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November 1, 2021

MainStreet Macro: Show me the money!

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

ADPRI’s Third Quarterly Workforce Vitality Report (WVR), released last week, provides an in-depth analysis of wage trends. The work is based on anonymous and aggregated data derived from about 250,000 U.S. employers and approximately 18 million private-sector U.S. workers. Here are four things we learned from the WVR in the third quarter of this year.
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October 25, 2021

MainStreet Macro: Gummed up?

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

Pandemic spending habits are front and center this week, when we get data on two major measures of economic health – consumer confidence and spending. Consumer spending has led the pandemic recovery. But consumer confidence took a hit recently, when the delta variant led to a surge in coronavirus infections and renewed anxiety about health conditions. The trajectory of spending -- will it slow or remain resilient? -- is the number one question facing the economy right now. Is consumer spending gummed up?
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October 18, 2021

MainStreet Macro: Scarcity

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

The concept of scarcity drives economic theory because we don’t live in a world where resources are free-flowing and abundant. Scarcity requires people and businesses to make constant tradeoffs to get what they want. The role of scarcity in economic activity has been highlighted by the pandemic. Supply shortages are everywhere. From new cars to chicken wings, inventories are running low. In this week’s MSM, we dive deep into the idea of scarcity in the context of our current supply shortages by answering three big questions just in time for the holiday shopping season.
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October 11, 2021

MainStreet Macro: A short-term fix

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

Every now and again something distracts me from Main Street businesses, consumers and employees. Today, my attention is directed toward Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, D.C. There, until last week, the Treasury Department was facing dire consequences as Congress fought over raising the debt ceiling. The urgency of the moment has passed after lawmakers in Congress approved a short-term fix to raise the debt ceiling enough to fund government spending through Dec. 3. What happens next? Glad you asked. This week, we tell you three things every Main Streeter should know about the debt ceiling.
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October 4, 2021

MainStreet Macro: Where do jobs numbers come from?

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

Monthly jobs reports are among the most closely watched estimates of U.S. economic health. Even in normal times, they have the power to move stock prices, influence Fed interest rate policy, and shape spending priorities at the local, state and national level. There are two important monthly measures of employment. The official government non-farm payroll report is produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, rain or shine, on the first or second Friday of every month. In today's blog, we provide a peek under the hood of these two critical indicators and discuss their similarities and differences.
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September 27, 2021

MainStreet Macro: Is there an urban exodus of high-income earners in tech and finance?

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

As disruptive as the past 18 months have been, one place where workers have sought solitude is at home. The housing market has boomed since the pandemic as remote and hybrid work options led to a big uptick in demand for home offices and outdoor space to walk all the puppies that were adopted early days of the lockdown. Much has been said about the pandemic-driven migration to the suburbs. But so far, we’ve had only limited data available to understand it. This week, ADP dove into its payroll data, where we uncovered three worker migration trends that could have long-run implications for the workplace.
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