People love the changing seasons. Whether it’s a snowy winter or a summer day at the beach, a lot of folks have favorite times of year that they know they can look forward to. The job market, too, is subject to seasonal adjustments. With all the change in the air right now, today we’ll examine the seasons of economic change.

Whether you started this week with the Super Bowl or Valentine’s Day romance – or both -- chances are that restaurant food, be it wings or a romantic dinner, was a big part of your plans. This week we take a look at the restaurant sector. It’s been a crucial part of the jobs recovery and a barometer of consumer spending and health during the pandemic.

Job numbers for January delivered a big and pleasant surprise last week. Economists expected a dour report after omicron cases surged at the beginning of the year. The thought was that an increased number of workers taking unpaid leave and forgoing paychecks would show up as job losses. The government release defied those expectations, reporting 467,000 jobs created in January. The upshot is that the numbers point to strength in the 2022 labor market. With hiring up, let’s take a look at a key structure of the job market, the hiring funnel.

Running a small business is not for the faint of heart, especially as the economy continues to swerve, pivot, and switch gears at a dizzying clip. This week, we reveal new insights from research on the changing small business landscape. Since May, ADP has been surveying about 2000 small employers every three months to find out what’s driving them – and what’s driving them crazy. They’ve had plenty to say. Here are the three big takeaways you need to know.

It’s been called the Great Resignation, the Great Reshuffle, and the Great Reassessment. But for some workers and the companies trying to hire or retain them, things don’t feel so great. A record 4.5 million workers in the U.S. quit their jobs in November of last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Companies are struggling to find and hire people. And the competitive market and rising inflation have employers puzzling over how to fairly compensate both new hires and their legacy employees. For many workers, wages are a determining factor in the decision whether to stay or go. Employers are figuring out whether they should pay to retain talent and, if so, how much. With these questions in mind, the ADP Research Institute analyzed the wages of 18 million workers during the last three months of 2021. Here’s what we found.

It feels like everything has been constantly changing over the past two years. Like the houseguests who overstay their welcome, we just want it to go away. But it might be good that we’ve all gotten accustomed to change, because more is coming in the months ahead in the form of higher prices and higher interest rates. This week, we explain the drivers of – and reaction to – inflation and how they’re putting the U.S. economy in a precarious position, at least in the short term.

2022 is just getting started – and thanks to the Omicron variant, it’s already giving us flashbacks of the past. The gloomy headlines might make you wonder where the economic recovery is headed. We’re in a cautiously optimistic mood this week, so let’s call it two steps forward, one step back.

It’s a new year on the calendar and the one-year anniversary of MainStreet Macro. We launched this blog with a proclamation that Main Street, not Wall Street, drives the economy. Main Street also determines the strength and duration of job recoveries and losses. A year in, how’s it going? The recovery taking shape has been as unpredictable as the events that brought us here. But we’re more certain than ever that each of us – workers, consumers, employers – plays a leading role in our own economic future. So, to kick off the new year, let’s look at three ways we’re all economists.