FEATURED POST
January 13, 2025
The skills opportunity
Job reports move markets because they’re the strongest signal economists have about the strength of the U.S. economy. But worker productivity is just as important to economic growth; it’s just harder to measure or capture.
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March 21, 2022
MainStreet Macro: The Global Footprint of U.S. Debt
I began my career as a PhD economist in the housing market, or to be more precise the mortgage market. Back then, I thought the two most local things you could buy were a haircut and a house.
Well, I got it half right. While haircuts will always be local, how homes are financed in America is definitely not. People look to the Federal Reserve for a read on interest rates, but it’s not the only entity that determines the cost of U.S. mortgages and other borrowing. Buyers and sellers of U.S. debt both here and around the world also play important roles.
Today, we look at the global footprint of the U.S. bond market and how it lands squarely on Main Street.
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March 14, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Why the Fed is Not a Bread Maker
One of my favorite things to do on weekends is make bread. It’s like magic. Measure the ingredients, toss them into the bread maker, close the lid, and press start. Three hours later, there you have it – a perfect loaf of warm bread. In life, alas, things aren’t as easy or predictable. That’s especially true when it comes to monetary policy. As Fed governors prepare to meet Tuesday to figure out a recipe for fighting inflation, they know that their own policies can behave very differently depending on market conditions.
Here are three things the Fed will be watching.
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March 7, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Oil-It’s bigger than you think
The price of oil, like most things, is determined by supply and demand. But oil is unique in how its prices are set and how they can affect the economy.
Today, we drill down on three key features of oil and what rising prices mean for Main Street – and what Main Street’s reaction might mean for the global economy.
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February 28, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Are consumers still all right?
While markets are reacting in real time to the recent developments in Russia and Ukraine, the effect of its uncertainty on the Main Street is tougher to discern.
Closer to home, the Federal Reserve is expected to act next month to begin reining in inflation. That means rising interest rates and more uncertainty are on the horizon. So today we’re asking this question: Are consumers still all right? There are three reasons to think they are.
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February 22, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Seasons of Change
People love the changing seasons. Whether it’s a snowy winter or a summer day at the beach, a lot of folks have favorite times of year that they know they can look forward to.
The job market, too, is subject to seasonal adjustments. With all the change in the air right now, today we’ll examine the seasons of economic change.
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February 14, 2022
MainStreet Macro: The Restaurant recovery
Whether you started this week with the Super Bowl or Valentine’s Day romance – or both -- chances are that restaurant food, be it wings or a romantic dinner, was a big part of your plans.
This week we take a look at the restaurant sector. It’s been a crucial part of the jobs recovery and a barometer of consumer spending and health during the pandemic.
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February 7, 2022
MainStreet Macro: The Hiring Funnel
Job numbers for January delivered a big and pleasant surprise last week.
Economists expected a dour report after omicron cases surged at the beginning of the year. The thought was that an increased number of workers taking unpaid leave and forgoing paychecks would show up as job losses. The government release defied those expectations, reporting 467,000 jobs created in January. The upshot is that the numbers point to strength in the 2022 labor market. With hiring up, let’s take a look at a key structure of the job market, the hiring funnel.
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January 31, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Small business Buffeted but not bowed
by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.
Running a small business is not for the faint of heart, especially as the economy continues to swerve, pivot, and switch gears at a dizzying clip.
This week, we reveal new insights from research on the changing small business landscape. Since May, ADP has been surveying about 2000 small employers every three months to find out what’s driving them – and what’s driving them crazy.
They’ve had plenty to say. Here are the three big takeaways you need to know.
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