FEATURED POST
November 19, 2024
Flipping the housing-labor dynamic
By most accounts, the U.S. economy is doing well. Last week, we learned that inflation is rising more slowly than it was a year ago, and consumers are continuing their brisk spending. Lurking beneath this upbeat data, however, is housing, which continues to put a squeeze on the economy.
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April 18, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Reaction to Inflation
Inflation rose to 8.5 percent in March, reaching a fresh 40-year high. Not only that, a measure of what wholesalers pay for goods, before they get to store shelves, rose by 11.2 percent. That’s the biggest jump on record, and it means there could be more pain in store for consumers. The breakneck pace of inflation didn’t rankle markets – stock prices were flat after last week’s reports, with analysts positing that the March data could be the peak for price increases. But Main Street is likely to react differently. Here are three ways Main Street is reacting to high inflation.
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April 11, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Trade’s Big Week
We get a flood of new data on the state of the economy this week, including the latest imprint on an important but oft-ignored driver of the economy – global trade.
Here are three reasons why global trade matters for Main Street.
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April 4, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Health Check
Last week, the government released data showing that the economy created 431,000 jobs in March. It was hard to find something not to like about this report – job gains were strong and broad-based. But if you’re looking for areas still in need of improvement (and let’s face it, as an economist that’s kind of my job), turn to the labor force participation rate. Today, we give the jobs market a check-up to see if it's really as healthy as it seems.
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March 28, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Next Up-The Great Realignment
It's been a jobs recovery like no other. As the nation emerges from the darkness of the pandemic and moves closer to closing the coronavirus-induced employment gap, many of us are wondering what happens next. This week, we come to you by video to explain the workforce and economic influences that will define the great alignment.
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March 21, 2022
MainStreet Macro: The Global Footprint of U.S. Debt
I began my career as a PhD economist in the housing market, or to be more precise the mortgage market. Back then, I thought the two most local things you could buy were a haircut and a house.
Well, I got it half right. While haircuts will always be local, how homes are financed in America is definitely not. People look to the Federal Reserve for a read on interest rates, but it’s not the only entity that determines the cost of U.S. mortgages and other borrowing. Buyers and sellers of U.S. debt both here and around the world also play important roles.
Today, we look at the global footprint of the U.S. bond market and how it lands squarely on Main Street.
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March 14, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Why the Fed is Not a Bread Maker
One of my favorite things to do on weekends is make bread. It’s like magic. Measure the ingredients, toss them into the bread maker, close the lid, and press start. Three hours later, there you have it – a perfect loaf of warm bread. In life, alas, things aren’t as easy or predictable. That’s especially true when it comes to monetary policy. As Fed governors prepare to meet Tuesday to figure out a recipe for fighting inflation, they know that their own policies can behave very differently depending on market conditions.
Here are three things the Fed will be watching.
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March 7, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Oil-It’s bigger than you think
The price of oil, like most things, is determined by supply and demand. But oil is unique in how its prices are set and how they can affect the economy.
Today, we drill down on three key features of oil and what rising prices mean for Main Street – and what Main Street’s reaction might mean for the global economy.
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February 28, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Are consumers still all right?
While markets are reacting in real time to the recent developments in Russia and Ukraine, the effect of its uncertainty on the Main Street is tougher to discern.
Closer to home, the Federal Reserve is expected to act next month to begin reining in inflation. That means rising interest rates and more uncertainty are on the horizon. So today we’re asking this question: Are consumers still all right? There are three reasons to think they are.
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