October 10, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Jobs week delivered good news, but a riddle endures
by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.
Jobs week is one of my favorite times of the month, and these days the importance of employment data is even more pronounced. With inflation bearing down, U.S. job and wage reports provide the clearest signals available on whether hiring and pay are on pace to drive up the cost of goods and services even more. So without further ado, let’s take a walk through the jobs week that was.
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October 3, 2022
MainStreet Macro: The private-data revolution
by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.
Yes, a normal day is still about 24 hours. But scientists say that Earth has been spinning faster, shaving milliseconds off a typical day. There’s evidence, in fact, that this year the planet is moving faster than it did in 2021 or 2020. If that’s not enough speed for you, there’s another acceleration under way, one that’s affecting the frequency of data
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September 26, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Another repercussion of Fed rate hikes: The dollar
by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.
The Federal Reserve last week took another aggressive whack at too-high inflation, raising its benchmark interest rate by three-fourths of a percentage point.
It’s the third time in a row the Fed has taken such a big step, and indications are it won’t be the last. Central bank policymakers have telegraphed that they plan to raise the federal funds rate a by a combined 1.25 per percentage points in their last two meetings of 2022.
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September 19, 2022
MainStreet Macro: The Fed needs a sidekick
by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.
Last week, consumer inflation data told us two things. First, thanks to falling energy prices, overall inflation edged down, to 8.3 percent in August from 8.5 percent in July. Second, other components of inflation accelerated, namely housing, food, and medical care. But if we strip out the two most volatile components of the index – food and energy — we get a troubling picture: Inflation went up, not down, from the previous month.
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September 12, 2022
MainStreet Macro: The stock market has a mind of its own
by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.
If you’ve been following equity markets these days, you’ll notice they’ve had a pretty bumpy ride. The S&P 500, a key index for measuring the financial health of the country’s largest companies, is down 17 percent from its December peak. While stock valuations in theory are based on corporate and economic fundamentals such as sales, ...
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September 6, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Pay Day
by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.
Private employment topped its pre-pandemic high for the first time last month. ADP’s newly relaunched National Employment Report showed gains, and Friday’s government jobs report found that total employment was 240,000 higher than its February 2020 peak.
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August 30, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Coming soon: A powerful new tool for measuring the U.S. labor market
by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.
Job growth is one of the most important indicators of the economy’s health. Pay and earnings data is important to Main Street for both workers and businesses.
To meet those demands for robust information, the ADP Research Institute is relaunching the ADP National Employment Report (NER). Using fine-grained, high-frequency data, the new report will capture intelligence ...
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August 22, 2022
MainStreet Macro: Jackson Hole: Another Trip down the Snake River
by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.
Every year at this time, the Federal Reserve holds its high-profile annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Some 120 central bankers, finance leaders, and academics gather to discuss wonky but important global issues.
The highlight of the event is a Friday morning speech given by the head of the Federal Reserve – Jay Powell. It’s the only public part of the conference.
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