FEATURED POST
October 7, 2024
Hiring in an age of uncertainty
There were a few data signals going into Friday’s blockbuster jobs report that many market watchers and economists missed.
Layoffs, as measured by a rolling four-week average of initial jobless claims, hit their lowest level in more than a year and a half. August showed an uptick in job openings, a hint that companies were about to ramp up hiring. And September’s ADP National Employment Report suggested that a rebound in private-sector hiring was under way.
Read more
Subscribe to Data Lab
Stay up-to-date on the latest reports and trends.
Stay up to date with Data Lab
Please complete all fields.
Filter by:
September 30, 2024
Main Street Macro: What could go wrong?
Last week’s economic data delivered a lot of good news. The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed that the economy grew at a solid 3 percent pace in the second quarter. Initial jobless claims, a measure of layoffs, fell to 218,000, the lowest level since May.
Read more
September 23, 2024
Main Street Macro: What’s debt got to do with it?
The Federal Reserve’s move to cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point won’t likely be felt immediately by its primary targets, employers, and households.
Yes, the Fed has a mandate to promote full employment and price stability, but in practice it takes a long time for rate cuts to translate into more hiring and spending on Main Street.
Read more
September 16, 2024
Main Street Macro: There’s still no foregone conclusion on inflation. Here’s why
It would be easy to ignore the economic news this week and pay attention only to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve vote on interest rates. I caution you: Don’t.
Even with a Fed meeting on the calendar, there will be much more important data news to watch. That’s because we still don’t know with certainty the future path ...
September 9, 2024
Main Street Macro: The landing: It’s not how, it’s where
For the last two years, economists and market strategists have been intensely engaged in a debate over this question: Is the U.S. economy headed for a hard or soft landing?
The how is one thing, but much less attention has been paid to where the economy will land. But after a week of weaker-than-expected job data, the economy’s destination is coming into focus.
Read more
August 19, 2024
Main Street Macro: Casting for bigger fish in Jackson Hole
As they gather in scenic Jackson Hole this week, Fed policymakers will be casting for big fish. The question on the agenda won’t be to cut or not to cut. It will be whether interest rate policy is an effective economic tool. ADP chief economist Nela Richardson explains why this year’s agenda is so important in this week’s Main Street Macro.
Read more
August 12, 2024
Main Street Macro: Wall Street threw a tantrum, but Main Street carried on
The deep sell-off that gripped Wall Street two weeks ago was short-lived. The volatility was triggered by a Bank of Japan rate increase that drove up the yen and rattled global markets. In the U.S., weaker-than-expected jobs data piled on, stoking fears of a recession and extending the market downturn.
Read more
August 5, 2024
Main Street Macro: It’s too soon to talk about a hard landing
In the days leading up to last week’s July jobs reports, positive GDP and inflation news had boosted investor confidence that a soft landing of the U.S. economy was not only achievable, but also close at hand.
Read more
