FEATURED POST

October 7, 2024

Hiring in an age of uncertainty

There were a few data signals going into Friday’s blockbuster jobs report that many market watchers and economists missed. Layoffs, as measured by a rolling four-week average of initial jobless claims, hit their lowest level in more than a year and a half. August showed an uptick in job openings, a hint that companies were about to ramp up hiring. And September’s ADP National Employment Report suggested that a rebound in private-sector hiring was under way.
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This chart says something, but it’s not what you think.
This chart says something, but it’s not what you think.

August 28, 2024

The correlation between bad practices and spuriousness

by Tim Decker

People today have access to more data than ever before, and correlations can be a useful way to identify relationships. What follows is a lesson in how to get them wrong.
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