FEATURED POST
March 11, 2025
The other T word: Part II
In my last Main Street Macro exploring the state of labor market turnover, I argued that a healthy job market requires a healthy level of churn. Employers need to have the ability to attract talented and skilled people with strong pay and better career prospects, and they need to be able to replace departing employees. But how much turnover is too much? How much is enough?
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October 2, 2023
Main Street Macro: Under lock and key
I vividly recall the first time I received my keys as a new homeowner. I was in a conference room with my new husband, our real estate agent, the seller, his new husband, and his real estate agent. I remember the seller passing the keys to me. In that moment, I became a homeowner. That was nearly 20 years ago. Today, mortgage rates are at a 20-year high, fewer homes are on the market, home prices continue to increase steadily, and moments like the one I had all those years ago are out of reach for more and more would-be homebuyers.
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September 25, 2023
Main Street Macro: Chasing Growth
This week, in the absence of a video, I’d like to set a scene with words. Imagine you’re a hero, tracking a villain dead-set on mayhem. The fate of the economy hangs on your every move.
Fraught with more tension than The Dark Knight, central banks around the world have been doing just that, turning their laser sights on interest rates as they try to chase down high inflation. Every decision carries high stakes, with the threat of a slowing economy menacing at every turn. It’s a fact that many economies don’t just fall into recession; they’re driven there by central banks that hike rates too aggressively.
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September 11, 2023
Main Street Macro: The hidden truth about promotions
I really enjoy research that tells me something new, something I wasn’t expecting. And that’s exactly what my team delivered last week in Today at Work, our quarterly research publication.
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August 28, 2023
Main Street Macro: Why we care about the care economy
by Nela Richardson, Ph.D. • Jeff Nezaj
Last week, I previewed the Federal Reserve’s meeting at Jackson Hole, an annual convocation of central bankers, academics, and business leaders. This year’s theme was structural shifts in the global economy, so when I was asked to give remarks, I wanted to reflect on a labor market component that's not often discussed – the care economy.
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August 21, 2023
Main Street Macro: Some pain, more gain. Powell’s warning, a year later
The Federal Reserve holds its annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this week. The high-profile symposium draws some 120 central bankers, financial executives, politicians, and academics, who meet to discuss important long-term economic policy issues. The highlight of the event is a Friday morning speech given by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Last year, Powell used his speech to deliver a warning for the economy: There will be pain.
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August 14, 2023
Main Street Macro: HR secrets, revealed
by Ben Hanowell
Insight into how the labor market affects our lives on Main Street sometimes comes from surprising places. And what sometimes might seem like a surprising place is where we should have been looking all along.
This week, we found labor market insight hidden in one such place: the HR department. Specifically, HR staffing ratios, the share of a company's employees who work in HR.
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July 31, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Holiday Roads
When economists discuss the economy, they often focus on the national numbers. But state-level data are just as important to understanding the drivers of growth.
As we turn the corner into August and peak vacation season, let’s take a data-driven road trip with three main stops – economic growth, unemployment, and wages.
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July 24, 2023
MainStreet Macro: Hold ‘em, fold ‘em, or walk away?
Some songs capture the ethos of the moment. As Federal Reserve policymakers ponder how to play their hand on interest rates this week, Kenny Rogers has some advice: You gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away, and know when to run. With Kenny’s wisdom in mind, here’s a look at the Fed’s cards and what policymakers might be thinking.
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