FEATURED POST
November 25, 2025
A silver twist on the gig economy
The federal government’s delayed September employment report, released last week, showed that the economy added 119,000 jobs that month, better than economists had predicted.
But for self-employed workers, the news wasn’t as good.
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October 7, 2024
Hiring in an age of uncertainty
There were a few data signals going into Friday’s blockbuster jobs report that many market watchers and economists missed.
Layoffs, as measured by a rolling four-week average of initial jobless claims, hit their lowest level in more than a year and a half. August showed an uptick in job openings, a hint that companies were about to ramp up hiring. And September’s ADP National Employment Report suggested that a rebound in private-sector hiring was under way.
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September 30, 2024
Main Street Macro: What could go wrong?
Last week’s economic data delivered a lot of good news. The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed that the economy grew at a solid 3 percent pace in the second quarter. Initial jobless claims, a measure of layoffs, fell to 218,000, the lowest level since May.
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September 23, 2024
Main Street Macro: What’s debt got to do with it?
The Federal Reserve’s move to cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point won’t likely be felt immediately by its primary targets, employers, and households.
Yes, the Fed has a mandate to promote full employment and price stability, but in practice it takes a long time for rate cuts to translate into more hiring and spending on Main Street.
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September 16, 2024
Main Street Macro: There’s still no foregone conclusion on inflation. Here’s why
It would be easy to ignore the economic news this week and pay attention only to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve vote on interest rates. I caution you: Don’t.
Even with a Fed meeting on the calendar, there will be much more important data news to watch. That’s because we still don’t know with certainty the future path ...
September 9, 2024
Main Street Macro: The landing: It’s not how, it’s where
For the last two years, economists and market strategists have been intensely engaged in a debate over this question: Is the U.S. economy headed for a hard or soft landing?
The how is one thing, but much less attention has been paid to where the economy will land. But after a week of weaker-than-expected job data, the economy’s destination is coming into focus.
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August 27, 2024
Gen Z prefers blue-collar jobs. Or does it?
by Sam Adieze • Ben Hanowell
College enrollment data suggests that Gen Z is moving toward the skilled trades. We took a look at the payroll data.
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July 1, 2024
Main Street Macro: Three job questions for the next six months
Over the past six months, the job market has proven to be the most consistently upbeat indicator of the U.S. economy. Hiring didn't surge like the U.S. deficit, which the Congressional Budget Office projects will increase by more than $400 billion to $1.9 trillion this year, the third-largest deficit on record, behind 2020 and 2021, when pandemic relief spending pushed it to a record high.
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June 24, 2024
Main Street Macro: People are buying less stuff. That might matter for inflation.
Over the last four years, Main Street’s elevated consumption of durable goods has had both plusses and minuses for the economy. On the plus side, consumer spending on items such as electronics, refrigerators, and new cars helped pull the U.S. economy from the depths of the pandemic downturn into three years of robust growth.
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