FEATURED POST
March 11, 2025
The other T word: Part II
In my last Main Street Macro exploring the state of labor market turnover, I argued that a healthy job market requires a healthy level of churn. Employers need to have the ability to attract talented and skilled people with strong pay and better career prospects, and they need to be able to replace departing employees. But how much turnover is too much? How much is enough?
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November 25, 2024
The inflation Grinch
This week marks the official kickoff of the holiday season. In any given year, about 20 percent of annual retail sales are wrapped up in the weeks between Thanksgiving and New Years Day. The National Retail Federation expects 2024 to deliver the strongest holiday shopping season on record. Consumers are projected to increase their spending by more than $25 per person to a total of $902, $16 higher than the previous record set in 2019.
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November 19, 2024
Flipping the housing-labor dynamic
By most accounts, the U.S. economy is doing well. Last week, we learned that inflation is rising more slowly than it was a year ago, and consumers are continuing their brisk spending. Lurking beneath this upbeat data, however, is housing, which continues to put a squeeze on the economy.
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November 11, 2024
The U.S. economy’s global partners
With the presidential election and the Federal Reserve rate cut behind us, now is a good time to turn our attention to the rest of the world.
No economy is an island. This year’s U.S. growth owes a debt of thanks in part to our global partners, who we will need to continue playing a strong ...
November 4, 2024
When the economic data is confusing, take a closer look
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that private employers had shed 28,000 jobs in October. Just days earlier, ADP data had shown that the private sector had added 233,000 jobs. It’s enough to give anyone mental whiplash. But the numbers beg an obvious question: Is the economy strengthening, or weakening?
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October 21, 2024
The strength of a boring economy
The 2024 economy has become boring. Despite being jostled by extraordinary events such as back-to-back hurricanes, interest rates near 20-year highs, and geopolitical events, the economy is humming along. Recent data on consumer spending, corporate profits, and worker retention confirms this resilience, and help explain why a boring economy just might be, for now, the best kind of economy.
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October 14, 2024
Helene, Milton, and the economy: What to expect
Hurricane Helene last month delivered a 600-mile path of destruction through six states—Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia—and Hurricane Milton followed with a second blow last week across central Florida. After September’s surprising boost in job gains delivered clarity on the strength of the U.S. economy, Helene and Milton are likely to influence economic data in the weeks and months ahead. Here’s what to watch.
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October 7, 2024
Hiring in an age of uncertainty
There were a few data signals going into Friday’s blockbuster jobs report that many market watchers and economists missed.
Layoffs, as measured by a rolling four-week average of initial jobless claims, hit their lowest level in more than a year and a half. August showed an uptick in job openings, a hint that companies were about to ramp up hiring. And September’s ADP National Employment Report suggested that a rebound in private-sector hiring was under way.
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September 30, 2024
Main Street Macro: What could go wrong?
Last week’s economic data delivered a lot of good news. The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed that the economy grew at a solid 3 percent pace in the second quarter. Initial jobless claims, a measure of layoffs, fell to 218,000, the lowest level since May.
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