FEATURED POST

March 11, 2025

The other T word: Part II

In my last Main Street Macro exploring the state of labor market turnover, I argued that a healthy job market requires a healthy level of churn. Employers need to have the ability to attract talented and skilled people with strong pay and better career prospects, and they need to be able to replace departing employees. But how much turnover is too much? How much is enough?
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September 12, 2022

MainStreet Macro: The stock market has a mind of its own

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

If you’ve been following equity markets these days, you’ll notice they’ve had a pretty bumpy ride. The S&P 500, a key index for measuring the financial health of the country’s largest companies, is down 17 percent from its December peak. While stock valuations in theory are based on corporate and economic fundamentals such as sales, ...

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September 6, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Pay Day

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

Private employment topped its pre-pandemic high for the first time last month. ADP’s newly relaunched National Employment Report showed gains, and Friday’s government jobs report found that total employment was 240,000 higher than its February 2020 peak.
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August 30, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Coming soon: A powerful new tool for measuring the U.S. labor market

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

Job growth is one of the most important indicators of the economy’s health. Pay and earnings data is important to Main Street for both workers and businesses. 

To meet those demands for robust information, the ADP Research Institute is relaunching the ADP National Employment Report (NER). Using fine-grained, high-frequency data, the new report will capture intelligence ...

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August 22, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Jackson Hole: Another Trip down the Snake River

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

Every year at this time, the Federal Reserve holds its high-profile annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Some 120 central bankers, finance leaders, and academics gather to discuss wonky but important global issues. The highlight of the event is a Friday morning speech given by the head of the Federal Reserve – Jay Powell. It’s the only public part of the conference.
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August 15, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Inflation-Tag team

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

Main Street received good news last week. Not only did we see a slight cool-down to our national summer heat wave, we learned that inflation dipped, to 8.5 percent over the last 12 months ending in July from 9.1 percent for the same period in June.
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July 25, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Hot Summer Housing Market

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

With most of the country withering in the summer heat, one sector of the economy appears to be cooling. After home prices took off in the early days of the pandemic, the white-hot housing market now appears to be cooling as sales slow.
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July 18, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Wages Go Prime Time: Part 2

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

My kids are into memes and have been since, well, the beginning of meme history. Given that my husband and I both are economists, it was only natural that a recent family dinner conversation centered around which meme would best represent inflation.
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July 11, 2022

MainStreet Macro: Wages go prime time: Part 1

by Nela Richardson, Ph.D.

Wages are the bridge between job growth and rising inflation, and their trajectory will determine whether the Federal Reserve can put the brakes on rising prices without skidding the economy into recession. To that end, the central bank is eying one particular data point with new intensity.
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